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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd